* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 10/05/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 35 41 48 58 62 66 66 70 66 61 56 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 35 41 48 58 62 66 55 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 38 43 48 46 34 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 18 16 15 11 11 5 4 5 16 13 18 27 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 0 0 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 63 67 61 57 58 60 76 84 87 168 193 173 209 215 220 241 267 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.8 29.6 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 151 150 149 151 152 155 156 161 160 167 169 168 165 155 146 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 6 7 6 9 700-500 MB RH 85 86 87 87 86 87 86 87 85 87 85 81 73 67 63 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 12 13 15 15 19 15 10 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 31 35 35 36 31 41 52 56 75 84 74 61 46 43 -2 200 MB DIV 32 35 48 39 52 76 70 93 72 99 69 98 123 97 99 73 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -6 -5 1 8 LAND (KM) 362 344 343 340 325 287 278 251 197 124 72 -23 -88 -128 -196 -353 -414 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.2 18.4 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.0 97.4 97.9 98.3 99.0 99.6 100.2 100.7 101.3 102.0 102.9 103.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 23 27 26 21 13 14 23 25 41 33 7 9 14 16 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 7. 10. 10. 12. 8. 2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 23. 33. 37. 41. 41. 45. 41. 36. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 96.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 10/05/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -14.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -6.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 4.6% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.0% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 6.5% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 10/05/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##