* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 10/06/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 61 66 72 75 75 70 60 56 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 61 66 72 55 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 41 48 56 47 34 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 12 12 9 4 8 13 12 16 23 26 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -4 -1 2 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 0 1 2 10 SHEAR DIR 65 57 57 58 61 61 74 79 154 181 171 186 199 216 228 251 258 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 29.7 28.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 148 149 148 151 152 156 160 162 171 170 171 162 149 136 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 5 7 5 8 6 8 4 8 5 9 700-500 MB RH 85 87 86 86 86 87 86 88 85 85 82 76 71 67 65 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 13 15 18 21 21 18 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 33 30 27 17 26 38 55 62 75 70 62 52 31 7 -19 200 MB DIV 33 39 28 47 53 66 62 92 86 107 120 128 103 72 62 22 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 0 15 58 LAND (KM) 344 335 342 327 308 312 294 252 189 132 54 -20 -108 -108 -223 -467 -487 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.6 16.6 17.7 19.0 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.4 98.8 99.5 100.2 100.8 101.4 102.1 103.0 103.9 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 7 8 8 8 9 11 15 19 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 25 19 11 5 14 20 30 34 35 7 11 16 15 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 16. 11. 2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 27. 36. 41. 47. 50. 50. 45. 35. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 97.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 10/06/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -10.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 0.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 5.6% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 10/06/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##