* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 10/06/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 66 75 77 83 79 74 63 65 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 66 75 77 83 61 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 39 46 53 61 69 56 37 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 15 13 10 12 8 4 3 10 6 9 14 14 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 0 -1 -2 -8 -4 -2 -2 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 59 53 56 65 63 71 77 86 153 173 149 178 190 193 209 257 264 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.7 29.3 29.6 29.6 30.3 30.6 30.9 30.5 29.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 146 142 141 142 147 149 156 159 160 167 170 171 170 156 142 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 9 7 10 7 700-500 MB RH 87 88 87 87 88 85 87 86 87 85 81 76 71 65 60 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 18 18 22 19 16 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 26 27 22 30 20 27 36 51 46 67 61 46 29 6 -15 -39 200 MB DIV 49 30 48 69 79 60 91 82 107 103 118 119 54 50 33 38 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -8 -2 10 31 LAND (KM) 363 369 360 366 361 360 338 304 251 205 122 54 -48 -43 -114 -319 -570 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.5 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.3 98.8 99.2 99.5 100.2 100.9 101.5 102.1 102.9 103.7 104.4 104.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 9 10 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 11 5 3 4 8 11 20 28 36 43 5 18 14 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 34. 36. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 14. 18. 13. 9. -2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 22. 32. 41. 50. 52. 58. 54. 49. 38. 40. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 97.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 10/06/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -12.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -16.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.01 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 3.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 18.7% 19.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.2% Consensus: 0.1% 5.6% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 5.5% 11.0% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 6.0% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 10/06/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##