* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 10/06/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 46 56 69 80 84 86 86 81 77 71 68 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 46 56 69 80 84 66 42 32 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 39 48 56 62 55 37 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 11 7 10 8 11 13 6 6 9 10 14 17 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 -5 -1 -4 -1 -1 4 8 16 SHEAR DIR 63 78 79 76 69 56 83 93 100 114 206 279 245 241 263 254 223 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.9 28.8 29.1 30.0 29.6 30.1 30.4 31.0 30.7 29.1 27.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 144 144 146 151 150 154 163 160 165 169 171 172 158 137 117 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 7 5 7 6 8 6 9 5 10 6 8 4 700-500 MB RH 88 88 89 89 89 89 89 86 83 82 76 71 66 60 55 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 10 12 14 18 21 22 23 24 20 18 12 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 21 23 27 24 33 40 58 59 70 54 33 22 -8 -15 -4 -22 200 MB DIV 27 47 75 87 79 66 109 124 129 108 60 30 0 4 29 17 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -2 7 13 -2 LAND (KM) 356 350 346 356 356 334 300 257 186 81 -23 -120 -55 -97 -276 -491 -753 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.4 18.8 20.4 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.8 99.2 99.6 100.0 100.8 101.4 102.0 102.4 102.9 103.6 104.3 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 12 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 29 11 8 8 6 9 13 20 39 18 3 10 17 11 12 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 18. 19. 18. 13. 9. 3. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 31. 44. 55. 59. 61. 61. 56. 52. 46. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 98.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 10/06/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -11.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -54.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 33.5% 10.0% 5.4% 4.4% 19.9% 61.4% 42.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 3.2% 6.9% 21.3% Consensus: 0.8% 19.1% 8.5% 1.9% 1.5% 13.6% 28.7% 21.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0.9% 11.5% 5.2% 0.9% 0.7% 7.3% 15.3% 12.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 10/06/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##