* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 10/06/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 52 63 75 80 86 82 79 70 63 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 52 63 75 80 64 40 32 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 43 51 60 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 13 5 5 6 4 10 9 10 10 15 33 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -6 -4 -3 0 -1 5 7 SHEAR DIR 78 75 66 59 61 64 118 100 134 216 223 218 202 197 199 217 211 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.9 29.7 29.8 29.6 30.2 30.5 31.3 30.3 28.5 26.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 145 146 148 152 151 160 161 160 166 170 172 169 152 130 103 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 7 9 8 8 5 5 700-500 MB RH 86 88 89 89 87 88 85 86 80 80 75 70 61 53 51 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 15 16 20 20 25 21 20 12 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 26 17 21 32 42 48 54 54 39 26 14 13 -2 12 17 200 MB DIV 60 73 58 60 66 91 103 109 118 86 55 43 41 79 57 41 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 -11 1 3 26 19 LAND (KM) 346 346 347 356 342 312 274 222 167 65 -34 -94 -36 -141 -332 -579 -938 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.7 19.2 20.6 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.2 99.6 100.0 100.4 101.0 101.5 102.1 102.7 103.3 104.0 104.6 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 13 17 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 9 6 8 12 16 31 28 20 7 11 16 13 12 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 14. 15. 20. 14. 11. 2. -4. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 27. 38. 50. 55. 61. 57. 54. 45. 38. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 98.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 10/06/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -11.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.43 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 26.7% 8.0% 4.2% 2.7% 16.0% 55.1% 37.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 2.4% 11.0% Consensus: 0.6% 15.1% 7.0% 1.5% 0.9% 11.0% 24.9% 16.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 11.0% SDCON: 0.3% 9.5% 4.0% 0.7% 0.4% 6.5% 13.9% 13.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 10/06/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##