* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 10/07/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 39 47 57 68 73 76 75 70 65 59 56 53 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 39 47 57 68 57 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 45 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 13 14 9 10 5 5 18 20 21 21 23 27 29 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 -2 -2 1 1 6 10 9 SHEAR DIR 70 69 71 74 74 81 118 168 246 253 256 273 276 283 257 249 255 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.8 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.7 27.3 25.7 23.9 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 146 148 152 155 155 162 165 163 162 159 153 139 123 105 82 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -50.7 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 9 4 9 5 7 2 1 700-500 MB RH 87 89 89 88 88 87 84 81 77 72 68 63 59 55 53 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 17 19 20 22 21 18 13 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 5 20 26 36 47 54 72 62 44 18 -1 -25 -13 -25 -23 200 MB DIV 57 58 45 55 82 75 99 105 80 34 22 30 11 18 15 28 16 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 -3 -2 -2 7 25 35 -14 51 LAND (KM) 356 356 356 340 313 262 181 79 -31 -178 -278 -281 -379 -586 -735 -915 -999 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.6 18.0 19.6 21.4 23.3 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.6 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.2 101.5 101.9 102.5 103.1 103.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 7 7 10 9 11 13 16 19 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 6 8 13 21 24 39 8 11 15 16 15 11 6 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 15. 10. 3. -2. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 22. 32. 43. 48. 51. 50. 45. 40. 34. 31. 28. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 99.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 10/07/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -13.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 33.4% 9.0% 5.1% 3.6% 21.9% 57.8% 35.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 2.1% 5.5% 3.5% Consensus: 1.1% 18.4% 7.6% 1.8% 1.2% 13.7% 27.0% 13.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 15.0% SDCON: 1.0% 12.2% 4.8% 0.9% 0.6% 7.8% 15.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 10/07/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##