* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 10/07/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 50 61 70 75 80 77 70 64 60 55 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 50 61 70 75 80 77 70 64 52 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 46 53 60 64 62 60 49 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 12 16 6 4 5 7 7 7 7 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 2 7 9 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 73 68 74 79 70 75 80 126 152 147 117 105 98 126 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.9 28.6 28.8 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.5 28.7 28.9 29.7 30.7 31.0 31.3 30.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 150 151 159 161 159 158 150 151 160 171 171 171 167 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 89 88 86 86 85 79 75 71 66 63 61 56 51 50 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 11 13 17 20 21 21 24 23 18 14 11 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 3 15 19 25 45 55 58 58 42 25 18 17 10 26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 46 53 86 74 81 106 95 79 65 18 35 13 -25 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -6 -10 -5 -3 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 351 339 338 348 365 375 367 331 270 185 111 43 105 -15 -150 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 9 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 8 9 11 24 25 28 15 17 27 43 42 18 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. 32. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 20. 17. 10. 4. 1. -4. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 25. 36. 45. 50. 55. 52. 45. 39. 35. 30. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 100.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 10/07/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.38 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 19.0% 4.7% 2.5% 1.2% 11.7% 45.4% 24.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% Consensus: 0.4% 12.5% 5.9% 0.9% 0.4% 9.6% 21.1% 8.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 11.0% 23.0% SDCON: 0.7% 11.2% 4.4% 0.9% 0.2% 7.3% 16.0% 15.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 10/07/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##