* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202026 10/07/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 48 59 69 79 86 88 86 82 77 71 72 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 48 59 69 79 86 88 86 76 71 43 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 50 59 69 77 82 85 80 80 47 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 10 8 11 10 11 2 4 3 8 12 17 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 -4 -3 -6 -4 -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 56 69 90 106 76 81 94 118 160 91 61 50 80 121 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.4 29.1 30.0 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.3 30.5 31.4 31.5 31.0 30.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 147 154 164 159 154 153 153 156 169 171 171 169 166 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 6 8 7 9 7 10 7 10 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 89 86 85 85 83 76 74 70 69 66 63 61 62 63 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 13 16 20 22 24 26 26 25 23 21 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 15 23 24 31 55 60 65 51 45 35 29 29 30 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 47 76 69 52 75 105 111 77 38 -10 1 20 15 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -6 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 327 325 326 344 356 347 331 285 202 103 27 37 0 -82 -149 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 8 10 18 26 26 21 19 21 7 44 3 13 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 23. 25. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 22. 21. 18. 15. 12. 12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 29. 39. 49. 56. 58. 56. 52. 47. 41. 42. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 100.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 TWENTY 10/07/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 21.2% 16.6% 13.4% 0.0% 21.0% 25.8% 52.8% Logistic: 3.0% 30.1% 10.2% 5.3% 3.5% 17.3% 57.4% 28.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 5.1% 11.1% 4.7% Consensus: 4.0% 20.2% 9.8% 6.5% 1.2% 14.5% 31.4% 28.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 11.0% 12.0% SDCON: 2.5% 16.6% 8.4% 3.7% 1.1% 9.7% 21.2% 20.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 TWENTY 10/07/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##