* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/07/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 49 58 67 81 90 92 92 82 79 65 58 55 50 46 53 V (KT) LAND 35 42 49 58 67 81 90 92 92 70 62 49 42 33 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 46 52 58 73 87 96 97 80 69 68 65 51 37 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 3 3 10 8 2 7 3 3 9 16 12 5 10 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -2 0 -4 -6 -1 -3 0 0 4 5 5 7 8 2 SHEAR DIR 51 75 86 90 75 94 103 171 248 278 38 51 73 105 217 259 239 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.7 30.7 31.6 31.5 31.6 31.6 31.2 30.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 161 160 155 154 154 160 170 170 169 169 168 169 166 150 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 9 8 5 3 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 81 79 77 74 74 73 69 63 59 56 49 43 38 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 16 17 20 23 24 27 24 27 21 20 19 14 5 8 850 MB ENV VOR 18 32 31 37 44 60 68 68 49 44 25 25 23 39 45 69 68 200 MB DIV 55 70 74 61 89 101 95 60 28 13 20 47 9 27 48 12 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -5 1 -5 -3 -6 28 15 LAND (KM) 215 217 231 234 240 231 222 162 59 -18 28 30 15 -7 -67 -173 -292 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.8 20.0 21.5 22.6 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.0 102.7 103.2 103.8 104.6 105.1 105.2 105.1 105.2 105.6 106.2 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 5 5 4 5 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 32 32 28 28 24 22 24 36 3 13 24 7 19 12 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. 13. 12. 14. 17. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 17. 20. 12. 9. 7. 2. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 23. 32. 46. 55. 57. 57. 47. 44. 30. 23. 20. 15. 11. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 101.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/07/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 13.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 10.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -10.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 7.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 59.6% 41.0% 26.9% 16.9% 50.9% 69.7% 47.6% Logistic: 31.3% 82.8% 64.0% 53.4% 37.3% 75.6% 77.6% 31.6% Bayesian: 11.9% 82.8% 69.6% 51.7% 37.0% 71.3% 55.5% 10.3% Consensus: 19.2% 75.0% 58.2% 44.0% 30.4% 65.9% 67.6% 29.9% DTOPS: 7.0% 39.0% 20.0% 7.0% 5.0% 12.0% 41.0% 54.0% SDCON: 13.1% 57.0% 39.1% 25.5% 17.7% 38.9% 54.3% 41.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/07/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##