* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/08/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 64 72 85 93 93 90 84 78 65 59 50 42 43 45 V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 64 72 85 93 93 90 84 78 65 59 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 58 65 78 89 96 99 98 94 87 78 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 5 7 10 3 6 4 1 4 17 19 15 7 14 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -4 1 4 5 4 5 12 12 13 SHEAR DIR 62 77 87 75 76 71 92 248 231 352 33 66 94 146 228 216 212 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.1 30.0 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.7 30.8 29.6 28.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 163 158 155 152 154 154 163 170 170 170 170 170 160 148 139 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.1 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.2 -50.7 -50.3 -50.9 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 8 6 9 6 11 7 11 7 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 83 80 77 75 76 75 73 69 67 63 58 52 45 42 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 18 19 21 24 25 26 27 27 23 22 15 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 36 45 53 57 63 49 45 31 29 18 41 44 39 52 38 200 MB DIV 87 88 54 74 76 97 68 22 27 16 51 7 6 9 32 14 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -6 -5 -8 13 7 -9 LAND (KM) 237 253 252 258 266 269 231 138 60 5 53 30 0 -97 -226 -303 -390 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 17.2 18.2 19.3 20.5 21.6 22.9 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.9 103.6 104.2 104.7 105.2 105.4 105.5 105.6 105.7 106.0 106.5 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 5 4 2 4 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 31 26 27 21 17 20 32 0 6 21 17 11 12 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 12. 14. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. 18. 19. 19. 12. 10. 1. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 9. 0. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 32. 45. 53. 53. 50. 44. 38. 25. 19. 10. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 102.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/08/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 12.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 10.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 7.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.9% 59.1% 42.6% 29.1% 19.0% 50.0% 67.5% 50.6% Logistic: 21.9% 72.4% 47.5% 39.0% 26.0% 61.2% 64.7% 21.5% Bayesian: 7.2% 66.2% 55.2% 35.8% 13.1% 56.3% 39.1% 5.9% Consensus: 15.7% 65.9% 48.4% 34.7% 19.4% 55.9% 57.1% 26.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 31.0% 13.0% 6.0% 5.0% 36.0% 75.0% 20.0% SDCON: 14.3% 48.4% 30.7% 20.3% 12.2% 45.9% 66.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/08/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##