* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/08/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 65 73 88 95 98 95 89 78 64 56 43 46 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 65 73 88 95 98 95 67 61 41 33 29 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 63 70 84 95 102 103 74 72 56 39 31 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 7 9 4 2 4 3 4 16 21 14 2 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 0 -4 1 4 2 1 5 14 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 58 24 50 71 72 73 255 270 11 56 81 116 121 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.1 30.0 31.1 31.6 31.5 31.1 30.0 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 162 158 157 153 153 154 163 170 170 170 170 164 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 10 8 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 80 80 80 79 76 76 74 69 63 56 50 42 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 19 19 21 25 27 30 30 30 28 23 19 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 39 47 53 61 60 41 44 29 36 36 40 40 52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 51 54 71 85 100 72 32 45 41 41 12 4 40 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 -10 0 -4 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 290 295 297 300 295 236 143 32 -28 28 -15 -74 -179 -283 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.6 22.1 23.4 24.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.3 103.9 104.4 104.8 105.2 105.3 105.4 105.2 105.3 105.9 106.4 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 3 3 5 6 6 8 8 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 28 32 30 30 24 18 21 29 8 19 5 13 12 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 6. 8. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 21. 21. 17. 10. 4. -9. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 28. 43. 50. 53. 50. 44. 33. 19. 11. -1. 1. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.4 102.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/08/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 10.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 9.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -9.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 4.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 46.1% 37.1% 27.2% 18.0% 42.1% 62.8% 50.1% Logistic: 7.2% 32.8% 13.8% 8.5% 3.6% 21.0% 44.3% 13.7% Bayesian: 4.8% 50.7% 34.5% 15.6% 5.2% 18.9% 11.8% 10.1% Consensus: 8.8% 43.2% 28.5% 17.1% 9.0% 27.3% 39.7% 24.6% DTOPS: 39.0% 73.0% 63.0% 62.0% 34.0% 70.0% 77.0% 13.0% SDCON: 23.9% 58.1% 45.7% 39.5% 21.5% 48.6% 58.3% 18.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/08/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##