* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/08/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 71 78 87 98 102 101 88 79 60 46 40 40 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 62 71 78 87 98 102 101 73 49 37 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 78 86 98 105 103 79 52 41 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 5 4 0 9 8 4 6 15 20 13 16 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -6 -2 4 6 5 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 52 52 82 103 223 229 147 146 59 77 92 110 122 203 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.3 30.0 30.5 31.1 31.5 30.7 30.0 29.0 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 156 156 153 153 155 163 169 170 170 170 164 153 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.2 -51.2 -50.1 -50.6 -50.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 9 7 9 7 11 7 11 8 10 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 79 79 79 78 76 74 73 68 63 56 52 44 40 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 20 23 25 28 29 24 22 15 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 34 45 46 49 52 43 47 30 32 20 16 24 18 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 62 68 85 77 74 42 70 55 29 -20 2 9 29 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -4 -1 -6 -8 4 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 296 305 314 296 282 245 152 54 -20 -1 -20 -97 -179 -290 -426 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.9 21.2 22.5 23.8 25.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.8 104.4 104.7 105.0 105.3 105.2 105.0 105.1 105.3 105.5 105.7 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 29 27 29 23 20 26 39 3 24 13 10 12 11 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 10. 8. -2. -12. -16. -15. -13. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 23. 32. 43. 47. 46. 33. 24. 5. -9. -15. -15. -14. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.4 103.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/08/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 13.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 14.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -13.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 13.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 7.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 63% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.9% 66.9% 60.5% 54.0% 38.8% 62.7% 59.0% 21.7% Logistic: 26.3% 65.0% 43.0% 34.3% 17.5% 48.9% 39.2% 8.4% Bayesian: 18.3% 65.3% 54.5% 37.6% 26.7% 52.6% 36.0% 5.1% Consensus: 27.2% 65.7% 52.7% 42.0% 27.7% 54.7% 44.7% 11.7% DTOPS: 54.0% 77.0% 66.0% 62.0% 43.0% 45.0% 47.0% 20.0% SDCON: 40.6% 71.3% 59.3% 52.0% 35.3% 49.8% 45.8% 15.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/08/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##