* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/08/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 75 81 88 95 97 86 67 44 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 67 75 81 88 95 97 86 58 45 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 68 74 81 86 93 93 86 59 53 41 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 8 3 4 6 10 9 8 10 19 19 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -4 1 10 9 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 66 70 75 243 202 178 172 143 102 91 133 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.5 30.6 30.7 31.3 31.4 30.4 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 155 153 152 155 158 169 169 170 171 168 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 77 75 74 71 67 59 54 52 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 23 26 26 27 22 14 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 51 51 49 52 55 39 38 21 17 -6 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 104 95 77 91 80 75 35 62 -1 8 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -7 -8 -4 1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 298 301 306 280 261 201 118 13 -28 28 -37 -134 -216 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.5 20.3 21.5 23.2 24.7 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.2 104.7 105.0 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.2 105.3 105.6 105.9 106.1 106.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 8 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 23 19 24 30 0 3 12 7 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 5. 4. 7. 2. -10. -25. -24. -22. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 28. 35. 37. 26. 7. -16. -24. -26. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.6 103.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/08/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.56 13.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 14.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -13.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 14.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 8.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.54 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.4% 66.5% 63.1% 60.7% 48.6% 51.9% 40.6% 16.5% Logistic: 16.8% 55.2% 34.0% 26.7% 12.6% 35.2% 30.3% 2.9% Bayesian: 14.0% 55.0% 59.3% 45.9% 15.5% 42.2% 17.9% 2.6% Consensus: 25.4% 58.9% 52.1% 44.4% 25.6% 43.1% 29.6% 7.3% DTOPS: 37.0% 81.0% 78.0% 84.0% 63.0% 83.0% 60.0% 0.0% SDCON: 31.2% 69.9% 65.0% 64.2% 44.3% 63.0% 44.8% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/08/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##