* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/09/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 73 79 82 86 84 69 50 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 70 73 79 82 86 84 58 41 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 70 74 78 81 84 78 57 41 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 3 5 10 10 9 6 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 4 5 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 24 353 274 189 208 182 178 170 70 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 30.4 30.6 31.1 31.2 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 152 152 155 167 170 170 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.3 -51.2 -50.6 -51.4 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 7 9 6 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 75 74 72 70 65 60 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 23 23 22 20 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 44 46 47 43 38 21 23 2 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 86 57 76 74 69 59 26 59 32 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -7 -5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 316 301 274 253 157 46 -30 -10 -50 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.9 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.5 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.7 105.0 105.2 105.3 105.3 105.2 105.2 105.1 105.2 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 27 25 20 19 24 42 4 18 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. -10. -24. -24. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 14. 17. 21. 19. 4. -15. -22. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.5 104.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/09/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.83 12.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -9.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 10.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 5.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.9% 50.0% 44.8% 40.6% 32.4% 31.1% 23.1% 15.1% Logistic: 11.9% 41.4% 22.3% 15.9% 8.2% 14.6% 11.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 6.8% 38.3% 30.5% 19.0% 10.8% 17.4% 5.7% 0.8% Consensus: 19.9% 43.2% 32.5% 25.2% 17.1% 21.0% 13.5% 5.6% DTOPS: 26.0% 80.0% 72.0% 69.0% 47.0% 74.0% 7.0% 0.0% SDCON: 22.9% 61.6% 52.2% 47.1% 32.0% 47.5% 10.2% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/09/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##