* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/09/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 91 94 97 100 92 79 57 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 86 91 94 97 100 77 48 35 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 88 93 96 97 97 76 47 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 10 5 7 4 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -1 -2 -2 -3 1 7 11 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 22 324 286 221 209 190 205 158 108 59 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.5 30.8 31.0 30.9 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 155 157 161 169 170 169 169 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 7 9 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 77 76 73 72 64 61 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 23 25 20 15 6 2 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 43 46 45 43 39 28 29 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 72 69 77 78 51 40 12 24 -2 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 -10 -2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 314 284 256 221 191 98 -19 -47 -62 -76 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.3 19.6 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.9 104.9 104.9 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 29 26 24 27 37 2 13 15 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 1. -6. -19. -25. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 12. -1. -23. -36. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.7 104.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/09/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.39 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 10.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -8.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 5.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.0% 44.1% 40.4% 35.2% 24.7% 24.4% 17.4% 11.8% Logistic: 19.3% 40.6% 25.0% 20.4% 12.5% 9.1% 6.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 28.1% 50.3% 46.6% 34.5% 18.6% 23.8% 3.1% 0.1% Consensus: 32.1% 45.0% 37.3% 30.0% 18.6% 19.1% 8.9% 4.1% DTOPS: 28.0% 56.0% 37.0% 26.0% 16.0% 34.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 30.0% 50.5% 37.1% 28.0% 17.3% 26.5% 4.9% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/09/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##