* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/09/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 89 91 91 88 77 63 49 44 41 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 85 89 91 91 88 77 52 39 32 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 85 89 90 90 84 73 50 41 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 5 7 8 8 8 4 14 9 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 -2 -2 -3 1 2 2 -3 0 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 255 172 226 205 178 164 156 50 89 138 185 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.8 31.4 31.0 30.8 30.4 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 158 160 162 166 170 170 169 168 166 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 9 7 10 7 11 8 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 75 73 69 67 59 58 58 56 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 22 22 19 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 42 45 40 35 23 21 -4 -11 5 1 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 51 69 70 67 62 20 31 14 14 -9 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 297 281 266 234 207 123 23 -24 -22 -52 -82 -119 -164 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.7 22.1 23.2 24.1 24.7 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.9 105.0 105.1 105.3 105.4 105.7 106.2 106.3 106.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 31 29 25 28 35 18 10 15 9 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -12. -17. -19. -21. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -21. -28. -29. -27. -26. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 11. 8. -3. -17. -31. -36. -39. -38. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.9 104.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/09/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.41 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 11.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -8.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 7.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.0% 51.0% 42.3% 35.2% 25.1% 25.1% 18.0% 13.8% Logistic: 28.6% 48.1% 28.9% 23.9% 12.3% 9.8% 5.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 23.5% 59.6% 47.7% 28.3% 19.3% 29.9% 6.7% 0.1% Consensus: 33.0% 52.9% 39.7% 29.1% 18.9% 21.6% 10.0% 4.8% DTOPS: 37.0% 52.0% 42.0% 37.0% 21.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 35.0% 52.4% 40.8% 33.0% 19.9% 14.3% 5.0% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/09/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##