* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/09/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 95 91 81 71 62 54 50 49 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 95 91 81 71 55 47 37 31 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 93 93 90 86 74 65 52 52 45 35 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 6 5 7 6 4 5 7 6 4 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 1 2 0 3 0 -2 -2 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 145 178 213 187 192 199 149 152 81 132 210 184 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 30.5 31.0 31.5 31.3 31.2 31.0 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 159 162 162 169 170 169 169 169 168 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 9 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 71 69 67 64 60 58 61 57 49 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 16 9 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 47 43 31 27 9 0 -15 -4 0 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 73 68 64 76 46 25 30 8 1 20 39 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 296 271 249 211 176 79 3 14 6 -15 -37 -60 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.6 19.8 21.1 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.8 104.9 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.5 105.7 106.0 106.4 106.8 107.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 29 26 28 32 37 1 18 19 5 9 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -19. -26. -30. -33. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -5. -10. -17. -24. -27. -27. -25. -24. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 1. -9. -19. -28. -36. -40. -41. -41. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.0 104.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/09/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -72.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.76 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.6% 34.7% 24.3% 17.9% 14.8% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 35.2% 50.2% 30.6% 27.5% 9.3% 9.9% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 22.3% 55.9% 44.4% 32.5% 5.6% 9.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 28.1% 46.9% 33.1% 26.0% 9.9% 13.3% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 29.0% 15.0% 10.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 21.5% 37.9% 24.0% 18.0% 8.9% 7.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/09/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##