* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/10/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 111 113 109 103 89 75 60 53 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 111 113 109 103 75 50 38 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 110 108 102 94 70 47 37 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 7 10 11 5 4 4 8 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 3 0 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 205 191 177 181 181 133 112 142 208 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.9 31.2 30.7 30.3 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 163 164 168 170 170 170 165 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -51.3 -50.8 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 6 9 6 11 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 69 68 69 67 63 58 58 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 20 16 13 5 3 2 2 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 38 37 39 24 6 -9 -18 -13 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 59 39 60 51 14 19 7 -4 5 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 231 201 176 133 83 -10 -15 -28 -89 -134 -156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.6 21.1 22.4 23.8 24.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.8 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.4 105.8 106.1 106.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 32 35 41 2 16 14 10 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -28. -34. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -20. -26. -30. -29. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 4. -2. -16. -30. -45. -52. -54. -55. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.6 104.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/10/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.22 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 6.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.79 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.4% 36.4% 28.2% 21.6% 15.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 73.0% 61.0% 44.6% 46.9% 33.6% 17.2% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 46.6% 42.4% 23.9% 18.9% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 54.6% 46.6% 32.2% 29.1% 18.0% 12.7% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 40.3% 28.8% 17.6% 15.0% 9.5% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/10/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##