* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/10/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 126 125 118 109 98 82 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 126 125 118 109 70 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 123 118 110 102 66 44 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 10 11 2 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 -1 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 195 193 171 196 312 112 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.5 31.2 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 164 169 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 7 8 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 68 67 66 66 63 60 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 18 15 11 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 32 37 30 0 5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 34 66 72 46 4 21 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 194 176 161 108 54 -54 -10 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.2 18.8 20.3 21.6 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.9 105.0 105.0 105.2 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 31 33 37 38 6 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -19. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. -0. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -12. -13. -18. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 5. -2. -11. -22. -38. -53. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.0 104.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/10/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.10 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 -2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 4.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -73.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.2% 23.0% 20.1% 17.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 57.0% 36.8% 28.3% 30.6% 21.6% 8.6% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 14.9% 3.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 35.1% 21.1% 16.3% 15.9% 11.8% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 18.0% 10.5% 8.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/10/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##