* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/10/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 134 130 120 113 100 81 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 134 130 120 113 73 54 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 130 122 112 104 69 55 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 14 13 7 2 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -1 0 2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 178 161 174 185 90 120 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.5 31.0 31.7 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 167 169 171 170 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 6 9 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 65 63 61 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 18 13 7 6 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 37 30 23 8 -8 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 73 94 39 7 17 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -3 -4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 184 147 103 59 26 -10 -10 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.8 22.5 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.8 104.9 105.0 105.1 105.2 105.4 105.6 105.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 7 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 30 32 36 23 12 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -12. -26. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -7. -4. -1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 8. 6. 2. -1. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -10. -12. -14. -19. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. -0. -10. -17. -30. -49. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.3 104.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/10/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 544.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -76.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.81 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 20.4% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 40.1% 23.4% 17.5% 20.2% 18.5% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.4% 14.9% 11.7% 6.7% 6.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.2% 7.4% 5.8% 3.3% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/10/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##