* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/10/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 120 114 107 98 82 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 128 120 114 107 70 49 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 125 116 107 100 67 50 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 6 2 4 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 5 1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 158 166 167 192 104 107 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.5 31.1 31.6 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 164 168 169 170 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 6 8 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 63 62 60 58 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 14 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 22 22 11 8 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 74 35 16 31 17 7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -6 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 176 147 113 59 20 -19 -30 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.8 22.0 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.8 104.9 105.0 105.1 105.2 105.3 105.3 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 36 12 11 16 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -12. -27. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -2. -7. -10. -13. -15. -19. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -10. -16. -23. -32. -48. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.4 104.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/10/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 583.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 -1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 15.2% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 7.4% 5.4% 4.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 7.7% 6.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 3.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/10/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##