* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/11/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 122 117 112 101 87 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 127 122 102 82 53 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 124 116 107 77 50 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 3 1 7 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 5 7 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 162 179 205 239 225 72 125 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.6 31.5 31.4 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 168 169 170 170 169 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -51.2 -51.4 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 7 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 60 60 57 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 24 20 13 15 1 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 40 25 15 8 13 -3 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 84 44 2 -30 -10 -50 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.6 22.5 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.8 104.9 105.0 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.2 105.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 34 36 1 4 19 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -13. -28. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -18. -29. -43. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 18.0 104.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/11/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 592.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.68 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 12.8% 9.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 7.2% 4.8% 4.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.7% 4.9% 4.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 3.3% 2.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/11/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##