* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/11/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 128 122 117 105 89 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 133 128 122 99 96 80 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 129 121 113 93 95 90 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 3 5 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 -1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 164 167 138 88 97 146 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 31.5 31.8 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 168 169 169 169 169 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 57 55 56 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 10 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 13 17 18 -5 3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 17 -5 -15 0 -5 9 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 0 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 52 28 10 -9 44 14 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.4 22.3 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.2 105.3 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.8 106.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 38 19 0 0 21 25 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -16. -32. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -5. -8. -9. -8. -11. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -13. -18. -30. -46. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 18.4 105.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/11/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.03 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 769.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.04 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.87 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -68.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.71 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 5.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 2.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/11/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##