* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/11/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 126 121 115 110 100 89 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 126 121 114 108 99 88 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 122 114 95 100 95 91 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 5 8 8 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 8 4 1 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 184 132 62 71 118 193 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.1 31.3 31.7 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 169 169 168 169 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 7 11 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 53 54 55 56 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 5 3 3 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 16 18 3 11 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 20 0 -4 -4 8 0 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 34 16 2 33 77 45 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.5 22.5 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.8 106.2 106.3 106.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 18 0 0 48 38 51 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -16. -32. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 3. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -20. -30. -40. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 18.9 105.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/11/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 793.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.01 -0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 11.6% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 2.9% 3.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.8% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/11/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##