* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/11/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 103 100 96 92 87 85 81 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 108 103 100 96 92 87 85 81 74 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 106 98 92 88 84 80 81 83 86 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 6 11 6 2 3 7 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 4 -1 3 2 1 -2 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 80 81 84 100 151 288 182 225 218 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.6 31.8 31.7 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 167 168 169 168 168 168 168 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 9 10 9 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 52 54 57 52 50 46 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 15 1 0 13 -1 27 33 70 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 24 16 5 8 25 6 31 5 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 54 49 45 52 80 137 135 90 60 8 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.1 23.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.8 106.0 106.2 106.4 106.8 107.1 107.1 107.1 106.9 106.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 44 40 40 34 37 52 57 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -8. -20. -34. -46. -57. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 9. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -15. -19. -23. -28. -30. -34. -41. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.4 105.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/11/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 713.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.10 -0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.39 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.5% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/11/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##