* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/12/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 90 87 85 83 79 77 70 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 96 90 87 85 83 79 77 55 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 95 87 82 79 75 74 74 59 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 11 9 1 1 4 9 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 0 0 4 0 0 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 64 62 91 113 260 273 267 239 246 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.4 31.8 31.4 30.9 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 169 168 168 168 168 168 167 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 11 8 11 7 10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 50 53 53 48 44 41 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 8 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 15 3 3 14 9 11 43 59 68 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 13 2 6 11 14 28 0 0 29 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 52 50 76 110 142 146 105 45 -30 -82 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.0 23.6 23.9 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.1 106.4 106.6 106.8 107.0 107.1 106.8 106.4 106.0 105.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 43 39 38 33 34 46 60 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -7. -19. -32. -43. -50. -52. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -9. -8. -5. -2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. -28. -35. -42. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.7 105.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/12/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.28 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 701.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.11 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.40 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/12/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##