* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/12/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 86 84 81 78 71 63 57 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 92 86 84 81 78 71 63 48 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 93 87 83 81 76 71 67 55 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 10 7 7 3 3 7 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 0 6 1 5 3 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 64 79 96 110 6 28 311 223 229 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.9 31.5 31.7 31.5 31.1 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 167 167 168 168 167 168 168 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 54 55 50 46 40 38 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 8 6 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -1 11 10 8 33 38 66 50 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 7 6 15 6 0 22 -14 -2 7 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -6 -5 -3 0 -5 -1 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 70 96 134 170 157 90 30 -15 -67 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.3 23.6 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.4 106.6 106.8 107.1 107.2 106.9 106.6 106.3 105.9 105.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 39 38 33 24 33 48 24 5 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -17. -30. -40. -47. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -16. -18. -22. -29. -37. -43. -47. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.9 106.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/12/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.31 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 682.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.13 -0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.4% 13.1% 12.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.0% 4.6% 4.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/12/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##