* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/12/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 88 86 82 80 77 74 68 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 91 88 86 82 80 77 74 58 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 92 89 86 83 78 75 73 62 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 10 5 3 6 1 7 13 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 7 6 -1 2 -2 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 77 95 130 359 46 315 269 239 241 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.4 30.9 31.4 31.5 31.0 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 164 163 163 166 168 168 168 168 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 8 11 7 10 6 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 54 53 52 47 43 39 37 36 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 5 13 9 15 45 45 64 76 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 8 18 14 2 10 -1 -25 -15 0 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -2 -3 -3 -1 -7 -2 -3 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 86 100 127 151 178 165 112 52 -15 -67 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.7 106.9 107.1 107.2 107.2 107.0 106.8 106.3 105.9 105.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 35 33 31 30 30 37 54 5 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -24. -33. -39. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. -21. -27. -31. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.0 106.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/12/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 645.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 -1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 16.8% 15.2% 14.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.9% 5.5% 5.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/12/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##