* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/12/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 86 85 83 79 73 75 67 61 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 86 85 83 79 73 75 67 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 86 83 81 75 72 72 71 45 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 8 5 8 7 4 9 18 27 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 89 100 31 14 47 328 292 262 244 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.8 31.0 31.5 31.2 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 161 157 155 160 169 169 167 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 55 56 53 49 48 41 38 34 40 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 6 5 2 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 2 11 7 -3 18 32 68 65 91 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 34 22 11 9 4 -9 -7 -12 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -4 -2 3 3 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 126 146 180 215 249 210 120 0 -52 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.5 23.5 23.9 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.7 106.9 107.1 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.7 107.3 106.7 106.4 106.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 5 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 33 32 30 26 23 24 35 5 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -12. -19. -27. -34. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -0. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -17. -15. -23. -29. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.0 106.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/12/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.35 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 572.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 -1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.92 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 19.7% 17.3% 15.4% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.8% 6.2% 5.3% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 3.9% 3.6% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/12/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##