* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/13/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 78 77 77 77 78 78 73 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 78 77 77 77 78 78 73 54 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 81 78 76 75 74 74 75 77 61 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 6 5 4 5 10 19 33 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 84 13 9 23 26 294 230 235 235 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.9 31.2 31.5 31.4 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 161 158 156 156 161 168 168 168 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 10 7 9 6 9 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 54 51 50 48 45 43 43 54 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 8 5 -1 7 25 46 71 90 59 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 28 0 8 17 -16 -6 -18 -12 22 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 9 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 126 151 180 205 232 239 202 105 38 -22 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.8 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.2 107.4 107.6 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.3 107.0 106.8 106.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 2 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 32 30 27 24 23 24 44 46 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -11. -18. -26. -33. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -12. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.3 106.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/13/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 546.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.39 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 16.9% 15.4% 13.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.8% 5.4% 4.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/13/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##