* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/13/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 80 82 82 81 79 71 61 53 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 80 82 82 81 79 71 61 53 45 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 78 78 78 79 79 79 74 67 57 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 6 8 5 8 15 29 35 38 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -1 1 -3 -3 -4 4 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 359 1 5 338 315 250 230 235 232 236 242 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.4 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 158 157 157 160 167 169 167 167 169 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.1 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 7 9 7 9 5 4 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 51 51 49 46 45 41 45 54 57 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -8 -7 13 8 23 34 70 84 45 21 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 9 3 6 -2 14 -11 -16 31 15 23 14 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 3 10 13 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 157 177 199 210 221 223 242 193 120 75 60 29 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8 21.1 22.1 23.3 23.9 24.0 24.5 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.4 107.6 107.7 107.8 107.8 107.9 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.0 108.1 108.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 6 4 2 1 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 34 35 35 35 34 30 24 48 49 49 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -11. -15. -22. -30. -35. -39. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -9. -19. -27. -35. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.3 107.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/13/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.41 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 556.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.68 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.51 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 22.5% 20.1% 16.9% 14.5% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 7.9% 7.3% 5.9% 5.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 5.9% 4.6% 3.4% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/13/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##