* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 80 80 82 79 75 69 60 54 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 80 80 82 79 75 69 60 54 50 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 79 79 81 82 83 83 78 68 57 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 6 6 1 11 18 35 42 43 43 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -7 -3 -1 4 7 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 4 3 353 326 358 251 238 244 242 250 251 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.2 31.6 31.3 31.3 30.9 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 158 158 158 161 166 171 170 170 172 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.4 -49.8 -49.4 -49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 8 8 7 5 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 49 46 46 45 42 49 54 55 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 8 8 10 9 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -13 -1 8 -6 7 21 67 39 22 27 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -7 -3 -13 0 8 -6 22 25 26 20 14 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 22 28 15 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 179 188 198 209 220 213 198 217 112 76 69 12 -179 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.0 20.3 21.8 23.6 24.8 25.5 27.1 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.5 107.6 107.7 107.8 107.7 107.6 107.9 108.3 109.1 109.9 110.4 110.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 8 8 6 6 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 35 36 36 36 34 36 26 52 28 32 18 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -0. -4. -10. -14. -20. -26. -30. -32. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. -1. -5. -11. -20. -26. -30. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.41 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.76 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 568.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.55 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 23.0% 21.1% 17.7% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.9% 2.1% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.1% 7.7% 6.2% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 26.0% 10.0% 6.0% 6.0% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 17.0% 8.8% 6.1% 5.8% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##