* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 89 88 87 80 76 68 60 55 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 89 88 87 80 76 68 60 55 52 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 91 91 89 88 86 84 82 77 69 61 53 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 6 3 5 11 27 34 41 38 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 1 -4 -2 -3 0 0 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 333 320 319 329 242 230 226 235 238 239 245 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.2 31.4 31.1 31.2 30.9 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 156 154 157 162 167 170 169 170 173 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 9 7 9 6 5 2 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 47 49 51 47 47 49 54 54 49 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 10 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -10 -5 -17 -2 2 29 50 58 32 43 30 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -6 -10 -1 4 2 7 6 29 13 4 -7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 29 16 9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 189 210 232 240 249 223 188 192 24 25 56 37 -156 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.7 20.4 22.0 23.4 24.3 25.0 27.1 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.0 108.0 107.7 107.5 108.1 109.2 109.9 110.2 110.7 111.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 1 2 6 9 7 5 7 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 36 34 33 30 30 35 23 51 15 31 29 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -12. -18. -24. -31. -35. -36. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -14. -22. -30. -35. -38. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.31 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 656.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.39 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 22.5% 20.8% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.4% 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 8.2% 8.1% 6.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 35.0% 11.0% 4.0% 4.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.9% 21.6% 9.5% 5.2% 2.3% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/14/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##