* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 88 87 86 81 76 70 64 57 52 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 88 87 86 81 76 70 64 57 52 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 91 89 87 85 81 79 76 72 63 56 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 5 5 6 14 30 35 38 34 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -2 2 2 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 335 340 352 36 254 229 232 236 239 236 235 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.5 29.7 29.7 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 156 153 147 146 160 161 170 168 169 172 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 48 49 49 49 47 48 52 55 57 48 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -8 -15 -3 -13 4 33 13 39 19 21 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 2 -2 -5 3 0 23 3 28 23 9 14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 23 15 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 213 229 244 278 317 323 229 217 27 8 39 83 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.6 19.1 19.0 20.4 21.5 23.0 23.8 24.4 25.9 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 107.9 108.0 108.2 108.4 108.4 107.9 108.4 109.3 109.7 109.8 110.4 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 5 3 3 6 7 6 4 6 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 33 33 25 19 18 36 18 51 1 25 32 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -29. -33. -36. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -4. -9. -14. -20. -26. -33. -38. -42. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.0 107.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.62 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 21.5% 20.1% 17.3% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.6% 3.8% 2.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 7.9% 8.0% 6.6% 5.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.2% 4.9% 4.5% 3.8% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##