* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 76 74 74 71 67 65 60 57 55 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 76 74 74 71 67 65 54 47 38 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 79 76 75 73 72 69 57 48 39 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 6 2 12 21 32 38 37 31 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 2 2 9 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 341 356 24 181 197 230 235 238 250 251 242 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 29.8 30.6 30.4 30.0 29.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 151 149 148 147 146 162 170 168 164 154 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 7 8 6 6 2 4 2 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 46 44 44 42 40 42 49 49 48 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -6 -10 -2 28 22 51 41 45 39 39 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -3 0 0 2 14 -2 8 18 18 14 6 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 20 17 17 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 249 257 266 282 298 308 324 144 -1 -20 -51 -12 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.3 20.2 21.7 23.1 24.2 25.1 26.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.2 108.3 108.4 108.8 109.6 110.1 110.8 111.6 112.5 113.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 1 3 7 8 7 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 26 25 23 20 20 12 24 11 2 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -29. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -11. -14. -18. -20. -24. -28. -30. -32. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.8 108.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.30 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 681.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.14 -0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.57 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 17.5% 16.6% 14.6% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.0% 5.9% 5.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 3.5% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##