* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/15/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 45 43 42 42 42 42 41 38 37 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 48 45 43 42 42 42 42 41 38 37 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 46 41 39 37 37 37 35 32 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 1 6 9 13 20 27 29 27 27 30 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 7 12 10 10 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 79 193 206 201 229 224 229 235 240 242 238 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 27.8 29.0 29.8 27.9 28.2 28.2 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 144 146 140 154 162 142 145 144 139 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 6 6 3 4 3 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 41 40 39 38 36 39 40 39 36 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 0 14 23 22 37 34 35 46 39 39 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 4 -3 11 15 7 2 -2 7 13 23 -6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 16 19 9 8 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 322 334 346 336 327 363 248 143 144 97 144 79 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.7 20.7 22.0 23.2 24.3 25.2 26.1 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.5 109.1 110.1 111.0 112.1 112.9 113.6 114.0 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 0 1 2 5 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 17 18 8 12 26 8 4 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -17. -18. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.2 108.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/15/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.13 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.0% 6.5% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/15/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##