* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/15/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 47 46 46 45 43 41 37 33 31 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 47 46 46 45 43 41 37 33 31 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 45 43 42 41 39 35 29 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 6 10 14 17 24 33 29 30 32 35 41 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -2 -5 -6 -1 7 9 10 10 14 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 139 200 207 198 210 222 220 229 240 236 232 236 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.4 29.7 28.7 27.4 27.7 28.2 27.5 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 141 142 147 160 151 137 138 144 138 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 39 40 37 36 35 31 26 27 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 13 21 21 14 26 11 41 37 39 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -11 14 11 10 9 10 9 -2 2 2 8 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 10 17 13 8 5 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 322 331 341 339 339 283 182 184 170 158 153 99 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.4 19.5 20.4 21.5 22.3 23.6 24.5 25.1 26.0 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.6 108.7 108.8 108.8 109.8 110.9 111.7 113.1 113.7 113.7 114.2 115.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 4 7 6 7 7 4 4 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 15 15 9 16 16 1 4 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -14. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.2 108.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/15/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.49 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 457.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/15/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##