* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 46 45 44 43 41 37 35 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 46 45 44 43 41 37 35 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 45 42 37 31 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 9 14 19 21 29 30 26 27 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 3 11 10 12 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 203 204 217 224 219 237 239 237 236 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 29.4 30.0 27.8 27.2 28.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 153 150 157 164 141 135 144 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 6 3 4 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 40 40 39 40 37 32 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 32 54 51 55 21 4 8 28 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 21 30 25 34 23 19 33 -1 -10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 11 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 277 279 296 324 215 160 171 146 154 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.8 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.8 23.8 25.2 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.5 108.8 109.9 111.0 112.0 113.0 113.7 114.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 23 16 16 22 9 1 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.2 108.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.59 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -35.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.27 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##