* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 41 40 37 35 34 33 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 41 40 37 35 34 33 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 38 37 33 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 18 20 25 32 27 27 28 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 3 8 10 14 15 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 210 217 223 228 220 227 236 242 240 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.3 28.8 29.7 28.6 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 146 151 161 150 134 137 137 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 43 41 40 41 37 33 26 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 52 62 55 29 12 19 31 44 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 28 35 44 43 25 30 10 15 -9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 13 15 13 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 293 298 306 331 263 187 233 215 200 135 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.4 108.5 109.1 109.6 110.8 112.2 113.4 114.1 114.5 114.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 5 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 22 11 12 14 15 0 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.2 108.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##