* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/16/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 35 33 30 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 35 33 30 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 32 30 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 21 28 31 30 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 3 6 12 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 211 208 214 213 227 234 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.3 29.1 29.7 28.5 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 156 162 149 132 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 6 5 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 37 36 38 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 6 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 52 73 34 22 19 45 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 30 55 34 21 9 21 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -4 0 17 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 298 323 329 248 202 252 249 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.4 23.6 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.7 109.1 110.0 110.9 112.7 114.2 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 8 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 18 11 13 12 8 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.3 108.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/16/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.13 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -18.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.04 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/16/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##