* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP202026 10/16/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 28 26 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 26 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 29 32 31 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 3 8 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 208 219 224 231 246 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.4 29.2 29.6 29.6 27.9 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 156 161 161 143 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 38 39 39 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 44 26 24 19 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 47 40 20 8 31 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 3 12 19 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 303 312 238 192 196 248 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.7 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.2 109.8 110.7 111.5 113.1 114.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 9 15 13 22 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.7 108.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202026 SIMON 10/16/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -11.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202026 SIMON 10/16/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##