* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212026 10/13/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 57 70 79 81 81 72 71 71 73 72 72 72 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 57 70 79 81 81 72 71 71 73 72 72 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 57 64 69 72 70 68 66 65 65 67 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 2 4 2 5 6 5 8 9 11 11 10 13 22 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 7 8 7 3 0 1 -3 0 9 7 0 -1 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 116 91 78 184 160 93 100 93 85 122 134 152 172 188 181 212 231 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 30.0 30.2 31.0 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 162 161 158 152 150 146 147 157 157 157 157 162 165 170 170 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 8 6 8 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 76 74 76 76 72 67 63 59 58 52 47 44 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 14 15 17 20 21 18 17 11 10 10 13 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 30 26 33 34 39 73 52 38 6 -11 -3 14 13 25 45 200 MB DIV 59 55 53 44 39 58 70 78 44 45 34 24 8 -6 5 30 12 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 686 636 598 581 560 534 480 427 360 292 221 138 85 67 31 106 120 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 5 5 7 7 7 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 13 29 31 22 3 1 8 8 26 28 29 26 31 39 41 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 38. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 10. 8. 7. -2. -4. -3. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 27. 40. 49. 51. 51. 42. 41. 41. 43. 42. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.5 96.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TWENTYONE 10/13/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 20.1% 16.1% 13.3% 0.0% 19.6% 18.7% 20.4% Logistic: 14.8% 59.3% 37.6% 23.4% 1.8% 32.9% 15.0% 33.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 25.8% 11.4% 2.8% 0.5% 6.2% 3.6% 0.5% Consensus: 8.3% 35.1% 21.7% 13.1% 0.8% 19.6% 12.4% 18.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 14.0% 49.0% SDCON: 5.1% 24.5% 14.3% 7.5% 0.9% 12.8% 13.2% 33.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TWENTYONE 10/13/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##