* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 54 66 73 80 82 83 79 79 77 75 75 75 78 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 54 66 73 80 82 83 79 79 67 73 73 73 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 47 51 59 67 73 75 76 73 68 63 60 62 66 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 2 4 1 3 6 5 2 2 5 5 7 12 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 8 4 4 0 0 -1 4 13 12 1 -2 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 154 160 135 143 64 346 280 326 332 179 323 29 90 136 164 180 197 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.5 28.9 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.5 30.0 30.6 30.6 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 161 158 151 147 151 160 163 160 156 158 163 168 168 163 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 8 7 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 75 75 79 77 74 70 68 66 63 58 51 49 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 16 19 20 22 23 22 20 19 17 16 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 33 29 25 31 34 27 45 54 47 13 -1 -37 -14 3 9 17 17 200 MB DIV 63 60 66 41 24 48 74 49 52 50 30 -10 20 23 16 11 24 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -4 LAND (KM) 599 546 512 497 476 450 379 301 238 180 88 38 0 10 56 117 160 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.6 13.5 14.4 15.2 16.2 17.4 18.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.8 97.7 98.4 99.1 100.1 100.9 101.2 101.6 102.3 103.1 104.0 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 5 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 17 30 28 19 9 1 11 34 41 25 29 1 0 41 38 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 12. 12. 7. 7. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 19. 31. 38. 45. 47. 48. 44. 44. 42. 40. 40. 40. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.3 95.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 23.5% 18.8% 15.2% 11.7% 22.0% 23.8% 26.0% Logistic: 16.8% 58.8% 38.5% 25.0% 1.8% 38.4% 35.5% 46.6% Bayesian: 1.9% 41.1% 17.6% 6.7% 0.8% 20.0% 7.4% 3.3% Consensus: 10.1% 41.2% 25.0% 15.6% 4.7% 26.8% 22.2% 25.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 18.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 12.0% 21.0% 18.0% SDCON: 6.5% 29.6% 17.5% 9.8% 3.8% 19.4% 21.6% 21.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##