* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 44 48 56 63 67 66 59 55 51 50 52 54 55 59 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 44 48 56 63 67 66 59 55 51 50 52 54 55 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 43 45 48 51 52 50 46 42 41 42 44 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 3 1 3 4 6 4 5 9 8 10 9 15 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 7 7 5 0 1 2 3 9 6 0 -4 -1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 151 231 251 264 12 211 160 142 165 153 144 183 230 237 213 235 249 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 161 158 154 148 149 159 162 159 158 156 162 163 163 161 159 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 6 8 7 8 7 8 6 9 7 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 74 77 78 76 75 71 67 63 60 56 57 52 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 16 19 20 21 18 13 10 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 32 29 31 33 65 53 32 17 -21 -15 0 -4 -10 -16 -8 200 MB DIV 67 42 16 24 47 60 65 46 71 27 -4 -4 -15 -13 -11 -31 -33 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 518 480 456 439 435 388 322 260 173 129 89 54 29 42 84 160 255 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.3 14.1 14.9 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.5 98.3 99.0 99.6 100.5 101.0 101.4 101.9 102.8 103.9 104.8 105.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 5 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 26 25 14 9 2 6 27 42 24 25 29 10 38 36 32 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 6. -0. -5. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 21. 28. 32. 31. 24. 20. 16. 15. 17. 19. 20. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.0 96.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 22.9% 17.7% 14.1% 10.8% 21.3% 22.9% 32.9% Logistic: 12.5% 58.2% 36.0% 23.3% 1.7% 37.8% 21.8% 25.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 28.0% 7.1% 2.4% 0.3% 3.6% 6.2% 1.7% Consensus: 8.0% 36.4% 20.2% 13.3% 4.3% 20.9% 16.9% 19.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 8.0% 33.0% 95.0% SDCON: 5.0% 24.7% 13.1% 7.6% 3.1% 14.4% 24.9% 57.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/14/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##