* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 51 59 65 68 64 61 57 55 53 51 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 51 59 65 68 64 61 57 55 53 51 52 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 47 49 54 59 63 64 63 59 54 52 52 53 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 1 1 1 3 6 9 10 14 15 16 17 14 17 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 7 3 1 2 1 0 3 5 3 -2 0 4 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 283 310 279 197 321 172 119 162 169 171 196 201 221 228 230 245 240 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 157 151 150 148 147 157 158 155 161 163 161 159 158 157 156 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 76 77 78 77 72 66 61 59 56 52 47 42 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 17 19 19 18 14 12 10 8 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 27 24 16 50 52 45 7 -15 -19 1 10 -2 -5 -10 0 200 MB DIV 19 7 16 49 63 78 50 57 42 29 8 18 -19 -24 -4 3 -25 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 -2 2 1 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 4 LAND (KM) 582 567 569 543 513 457 395 328 233 161 90 100 158 205 228 251 256 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.1 16.3 17.6 19.1 20.1 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.5 100.3 100.8 101.4 102.2 102.6 103.1 103.9 104.8 105.8 106.6 107.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 30 19 7 2 0 8 7 18 28 29 29 35 32 33 32 29 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 25. 28. 24. 21. 17. 15. 13. 11. 12. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.8 98.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 19.9% 15.9% 13.5% 10.0% 20.1% 18.7% 18.7% Logistic: 10.8% 49.9% 30.6% 16.9% 1.3% 17.2% 5.1% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% Consensus: 6.8% 23.9% 15.5% 10.1% 3.8% 12.4% 8.5% 9.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 19.0% 11.0% 5.0% 5.0% 17.0% 33.0% 90.0% SDCON: 4.4% 21.4% 13.2% 7.5% 4.4% 14.7% 20.7% 49.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##