* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 62 69 74 69 64 58 52 53 52 51 50 50 51 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 62 69 74 69 64 58 52 53 52 51 50 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 60 66 70 72 72 69 63 59 58 59 60 60 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 3 5 8 9 12 8 10 12 6 11 15 18 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 3 0 0 1 -2 0 6 10 4 0 2 2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 277 274 237 164 169 134 115 107 125 181 239 254 238 214 226 222 232 SST (C) 29.5 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.6 29.3 29.5 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 153 151 149 148 147 151 159 157 159 164 164 159 158 158 158 156 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 7 7 4 8 6 9 7 10 6 700-500 MB RH 69 73 74 78 78 77 73 67 64 64 65 60 59 54 52 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 19 21 21 15 12 9 5 4 2 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 26 38 50 67 52 29 1 -22 -28 -19 -16 -7 -11 -7 -1 200 MB DIV 19 43 52 52 89 118 53 70 28 0 -6 6 -2 -1 -8 8 -26 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 -5 -7 3 6 0 -1 0 2 -1 3 LAND (KM) 543 525 504 476 451 393 321 272 160 98 43 57 160 196 196 213 201 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.8 14.8 15.6 17.0 18.2 19.3 20.2 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.0 100.8 101.1 101.4 101.9 102.5 103.0 103.9 104.7 105.4 106.2 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 5 4 5 5 6 8 7 6 6 4 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 4 1 0 0 5 20 25 23 32 27 40 29 35 35 32 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -6. -11. -15. -15. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 29. 24. 19. 13. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.3 99.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -55.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.53 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 23.3% 19.0% 15.8% 12.0% 22.6% 26.2% 17.0% Logistic: 26.3% 64.4% 46.2% 32.2% 4.8% 27.0% 12.1% 10.8% Bayesian: 4.3% 19.7% 9.8% 2.8% 0.7% 5.2% 6.6% 1.6% Consensus: 14.0% 35.8% 25.0% 16.9% 5.8% 18.3% 14.9% 9.8% DTOPS: 6.0% 26.0% 18.0% 9.0% 8.0% 15.0% 33.0% 72.0% SDCON: 10.0% 30.9% 21.5% 12.9% 6.9% 16.6% 23.9% 40.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##