* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/14/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 74 79 85 86 81 74 64 64 60 60 55 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 74 79 85 86 81 74 64 64 60 60 55 54 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 71 75 79 82 83 80 73 68 66 65 64 61 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 3 6 7 7 7 8 8 12 10 12 15 11 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 2 1 1 1 0 6 10 8 -1 0 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 283 285 203 196 162 121 122 133 167 165 159 171 177 196 211 209 215 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.5 28.6 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 150 148 148 148 157 161 159 160 164 163 159 157 147 141 141 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 6 5 7 7 9 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 75 78 78 77 76 70 66 63 60 54 50 46 43 41 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 19 20 20 17 15 10 11 9 9 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 24 31 40 58 38 12 -10 -42 -23 -9 -2 5 -3 2 -1 200 MB DIV 34 45 57 83 92 62 56 50 18 2 1 -8 4 1 4 -6 18 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 6 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 520 500 469 441 416 343 267 211 134 84 69 111 137 220 300 341 319 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 14.2 15.1 16.0 17.0 18.0 18.9 19.6 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.2 100.7 101.0 101.3 101.7 102.0 102.5 103.2 104.2 105.4 106.4 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 5 4 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 1 0 0 10 30 35 27 31 30 36 30 34 19 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -7. -5. -8. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 24. 30. 31. 26. 19. 9. 9. 5. 5. 0. -1. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.7 99.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/14/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.55 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 7.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -9.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 6.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.5% 54.6% 37.5% 25.7% 14.8% 0.0% 25.0% 15.2% Logistic: 42.8% 76.0% 58.6% 46.3% 14.0% 40.5% 14.3% 6.0% Bayesian: 10.5% 34.0% 19.7% 9.9% 3.1% 19.5% 18.7% 0.3% Consensus: 24.3% 54.9% 38.6% 27.3% 10.6% 20.0% 19.3% 7.2% DTOPS: 14.0% 59.0% 35.0% 29.0% 23.0% 66.0% 72.0% 67.0% SDCON: 19.1% 56.9% 36.8% 28.1% 16.8% 43.0% 45.6% 37.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/14/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##