* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/15/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 65 70 74 80 78 67 54 46 45 45 46 43 41 38 35 V (KT) LAND 55 59 65 70 74 80 78 67 54 46 45 45 46 43 41 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 67 71 71 68 62 57 55 56 56 56 53 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 8 8 5 7 16 11 11 8 8 15 23 20 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 1 0 4 5 8 0 -2 7 2 0 0 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 282 198 171 160 146 131 107 135 151 228 262 246 225 244 234 233 252 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 29.5 29.8 29.5 29.6 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 148 147 158 162 159 159 163 159 154 148 141 136 137 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 7 8 6 6 5 8 7 10 8 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 77 77 77 75 73 68 64 64 58 53 49 44 39 37 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 21 21 18 12 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 28 53 57 65 41 24 -9 -26 -26 -22 -30 -14 -13 0 5 12 200 MB DIV 47 84 109 117 114 61 70 54 66 6 -2 -16 -10 -22 -16 -16 25 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 1 0 -2 -1 3 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 519 492 472 440 408 337 268 202 113 93 108 175 246 303 352 386 381 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.5 18.4 19.1 19.4 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.0 101.4 101.6 101.8 102.0 102.4 103.1 104.0 105.0 106.0 107.0 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 2 5 14 31 30 26 31 32 32 24 21 13 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -8. -18. -23. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 25. 23. 12. -1. -9. -10. -10. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 100.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/15/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.54 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -8.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 6.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -68.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.70 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 51.0% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 14.3% Logistic: 31.6% 69.6% 48.3% 39.6% 13.8% 33.0% 5.4% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 7.1% 6.3% 2.8% 0.1% 6.5% 8.7% 0.2% Consensus: 15.4% 42.6% 29.0% 14.1% 4.6% 13.2% 12.3% 5.4% DTOPS: 14.0% 35.0% 25.0% 17.0% 15.0% 34.0% 44.0% 19.0% SDCON: 14.7% 38.8% 27.0% 15.5% 9.8% 23.6% 28.1% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/15/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##