* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/15/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 80 83 87 84 77 69 59 52 48 48 45 43 39 37 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 80 83 87 84 77 69 59 52 48 48 45 43 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 74 78 80 84 85 81 73 65 59 57 58 57 55 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 6 4 5 12 8 11 10 15 13 12 17 19 28 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 2 0 -1 7 7 4 -5 -1 3 0 0 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 201 162 160 143 123 110 133 152 165 177 196 211 228 243 243 248 230 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.9 29.7 29.2 29.3 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.2 28.5 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 145 151 160 156 157 163 159 156 152 143 146 149 144 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 75 74 73 69 65 61 57 49 45 39 39 36 40 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 21 21 18 16 13 8 4 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 38 46 62 52 33 -2 -19 -24 -21 0 -4 -8 -11 -4 -10 3 200 MB DIV 69 106 117 93 75 73 64 53 50 22 2 -15 -11 -19 0 17 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 4 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 484 468 453 415 376 311 254 164 133 127 140 209 267 326 265 249 293 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.9 15.8 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.1 20.3 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.6 101.9 102.0 102.2 102.5 103.1 104.0 105.2 106.3 107.0 107.7 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 4 5 6 8 8 7 4 3 2 4 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 4 6 7 22 27 22 25 33 31 34 27 11 12 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -8. -15. -20. -21. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 18. 22. 19. 12. 4. -6. -13. -17. -17. -20. -22. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.6 101.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/15/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 8.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 6.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -68.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.70 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.3% 50.3% 37.3% 27.7% 18.1% 24.2% 18.7% 13.3% Logistic: 25.9% 62.5% 43.0% 35.7% 15.4% 19.6% 4.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 3.3% 19.4% 19.4% 10.1% 1.1% 9.6% 5.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.8% 44.1% 33.2% 24.5% 11.5% 17.8% 9.5% 4.7% DTOPS: 20.0% 40.0% 25.0% 20.0% 16.0% 20.0% 13.0% 1.0% SDCON: 20.4% 42.0% 29.1% 22.2% 13.7% 18.9% 11.2% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/15/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##