* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 92 95 96 94 89 79 70 61 55 53 52 49 47 46 44 V (KT) LAND 80 87 92 95 96 94 89 79 70 61 55 53 52 49 47 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 94 97 98 97 94 83 72 63 58 56 56 55 55 54 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 7 8 6 10 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 27 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 2 8 4 1 0 2 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 178 174 137 116 141 122 170 171 167 175 212 229 258 252 253 249 242 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 149 150 161 161 158 166 162 159 156 151 148 151 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 8 6 6 5 8 6 8 6 9 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 72 70 66 63 58 52 47 42 39 39 38 37 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 22 19 20 15 11 6 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 43 62 51 39 16 -25 -34 -24 -14 -9 -10 -10 -1 -4 -9 6 200 MB DIV 98 114 105 64 55 65 12 32 22 12 -9 -14 -21 4 -10 23 -12 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 2 0 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 470 444 418 384 350 293 198 128 86 119 198 271 302 277 241 237 249 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.4 16.6 18.0 19.3 20.1 20.5 20.6 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.8 102.0 102.3 102.5 103.0 103.8 104.9 105.9 106.8 107.6 108.3 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 5 6 8 9 7 5 4 2 1 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 6 9 14 26 29 33 32 34 34 27 20 11 14 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -7. -13. -20. -23. -23. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 16. 14. 9. -1. -10. -19. -25. -27. -28. -31. -33. -34. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 12.9 101.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.35 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 9.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 8.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -7.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 5.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.68 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.9% 44.7% 36.4% 29.1% 18.0% 24.5% 16.8% 10.1% Logistic: 40.2% 61.0% 44.9% 40.5% 22.7% 18.3% 3.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 10.5% 12.2% 15.4% 10.0% 2.4% 5.6% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 33.2% 39.3% 32.2% 26.5% 14.4% 16.1% 6.7% 3.6% DTOPS: 39.0% 24.0% 17.0% 23.0% 17.0% 12.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 36.1% 31.6% 24.6% 24.7% 15.7% 14.0% 4.3% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##